Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

3132

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

February 02 2020

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 39 30 55 53
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 77 59 84 118
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 3 3 3 4
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 4 2 8 12
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 211 102 132 143
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 39 29 66 67
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 8 5 9 8
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 3 3 2 5
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 36 35 39 88
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 33 82 101 92
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 14 22 12 9
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 36 20 26 53
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 70 168 132 98
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 48 58 69 49
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 45 48 54 39
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 21 20 77 52

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 2 0 1 2
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 5 3 5 8
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 6 2 1 0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 1 1 2 1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 1 0 1 0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 1 1 2 6
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 3 9 13 11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 2 4 1 0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 1 1 4
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 1 7 6 4
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 7 5 4 4
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 3 2 1 2
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 10 3

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.04
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.12 0.08
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.12 0.00 0.11 0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.14 0.18 0.08 0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.08
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.01 0.04 0.05 0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.15 0.09 0.06 0.08
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.04 0.02 0.05
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.06

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.05
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.08 0.07
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.01
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.03
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.05
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.05
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.10
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.05
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.07
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.11 0.07 0.06 0.07
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.04 0.04 0.11 0.06

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.48 0.16 0.11 0.25
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.31 0.13 0.25 0.31
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.40 0.10 0.18 0.32
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.21 0.14 0.40 0.25
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.45 0.47 0.06 0.03
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.32 0.37 0.21 0.10
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.37 0.12 0.38 0.13
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.30 0.19 0.30 0.21
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.17 0.13 0.28 0.41
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.12 0.10 0.51 0.28
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.36 0.33 0.23 0.08
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.39 0.14 0.16 0.31
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.12 0.26 0.34 0.28
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.64 0.12 0.08 0.16
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.46 0.19 0.07 0.28
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.04 0.03 0.86 0.08

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.43 0.18 0.14 0.25
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.30 0.16 0.25 0.30
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.37 0.13 0.19 0.31
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.22 0.16 0.37 0.25
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.41 0.42 0.10 0.07
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.31 0.34 0.22 0.13
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.34 0.15 0.36 0.15
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.29 0.21 0.29 0.22
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.19 0.16 0.28 0.38
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.15 0.13 0.45 0.27
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.34 0.31 0.23 0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.36 0.16 0.18 0.30
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.15 0.26 0.32 0.28
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.56 0.15 0.11 0.18
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.42 0.20 0.11 0.27
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.07 0.74 0.11

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp (0.020, 0.110) (0.010, 0.070) (0.010, 0.070) (0.020, 0.090)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp (0.030, 0.110) (0.020, 0.090) (0.030, 0.100) (0.040, 0.100)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp (0.030, 0.210) (0.010, 0.110) (0.010, 0.150) (0.020, 0.180)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.010, 0.140) (0.010, 0.110) (0.020, 0.180) (0.020, 0.140)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp (0.020, 0.060) (0.010, 0.060) (0.000, 0.040) (0.000, 0.030)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp (0.010, 0.090) (0.020, 0.090) (0.010, 0.080) (0.010, 0.060)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp (0.020, 0.170) (0.010, 0.100) (0.020, 0.170) (0.010, 0.110)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.010, 0.150) (0.010, 0.110) (0.010, 0.160) (0.010, 0.120)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp (0.010, 0.090) (0.020, 0.080) (0.020, 0.110) (0.030, 0.110)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp (0.030, 0.140) (0.050, 0.130) (0.070, 0.170) (0.060, 0.150)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp (0.030, 0.180) (0.040, 0.170) (0.020, 0.160) (0.010, 0.110)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.030, 0.130) (0.020, 0.100) (0.010, 0.110) (0.030, 0.120)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp (0.010, 0.070) (0.030, 0.070) (0.020, 0.080) (0.020, 0.080)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp (0.050, 0.180) (0.040, 0.110) (0.030, 0.110) (0.030, 0.130)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp (0.030, 0.120) (0.020, 0.090) (0.010, 0.070) (0.020, 0.100)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.010, 0.090) (0.010, 0.080) (0.070, 0.170) (0.020, 0.100)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.016, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.004. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (-0.001, 0.004)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.004, 0.035)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.018, 0.028) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.000, 0.004)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (-0.001, 0.032)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.015, 0.024) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date